Tongce Medical (600763): The performance is slightly higher than the market expectation, internal and external expansion is steadily advancing

Tongce Medical (600763): The performance is slightly higher than the market expectation, internal and external expansion is steadily advancing
This report reads: The company’s early promotion of the branch into a rapid growth period, 武汉夜生活网 continuous improvement of profitability, accelerating contribution performance, dandelion plan to fully promote, strategic layout of ophthalmic medical services, high-speed growth continued, maintaining an overweight rating. Investment Highlights: Maintain Overweight rating.The company’s early cultivation of branches has grown rapidly, and its profitability has continued to improve. It has raised its 2019-2021 earnings per share forecast to 1.51/1.96/2.52 yuan (was 1).40/1.85/2.38 yuan), correspondingly raised the target price to 107.8 yuan, corresponding to PE 55X in 2020, maintaining an overweight rating. The performance slightly exceeded market expectations, and profitability improved significantly.The company’s H1 revenue in 2019 was 8.4.7 billion yuan (+23.58%), net profit attributable to mother 2.08 thousand yuan 杭州桑拿 (+54.07%), deducting non-net profit 2.0.4 billion (+53.85%), the performance slightly exceeded market expectations.Under the consumption upgrade, high gross profit margin businesses such as pediatrics and plantation maintained 30% + rapid growth, and gross profit margin increased by 3.78pp to 45.60%, scale effect reduces costs, during the period, the expense ratio continues to fall, and the net interest rate attributable to mothers increases by 4.85pp to 24.56%. In the early stage, we fostered rapid growth of branch institutions and accelerated contribution to performance.The company’s “Regional General Hospital + Branch” development model is gradually gaining momentum, and the Zhejiang Regional Branch Hospital’s outpatient clinic54.660,000 person-times (+25.60%), income 4.4.7 billion (+ 34.17%, revenue contribution steadily increased 4.99%).In the future, Ningbo Dental will complete the expansion of the new hospital (expected to be delivered by the end of 2019) and intends to enter a new round of development; Haining, Zhuji, Shangyu and other early-cultivation branches have entered a rapid growth period; Shaoxing Yuecheng, Xiaoshan, and Tongdong have turned losses orReduce losses; the performance of the regional stomatological hospital group in Zhejiang Province has begun to show, and the high growth trend continues. The expansion inside and outside the province is steadily advancing, and strategic ophthalmic medical services are deployed.The dandelion plan in the province is fully promoted. It is expected that the dandelion plan branch will open in October 2019, and another 15 hospitals will enter the project approval and planning stage.The company invested in large-scale dental regional general hospitals in the first-tier and key provincial capitals of the country through dental funds. Chongqing began trial operation in February. Xi’an and Chengdu are expected to be completed by the end of the year.The company has invested in the construction of Zhejiang University Eye Hospital and plans to open it before the end of 2019, which is expected to become a new growth point. Risk Warning: Expansion of dental hospitals exceeds expectations; additional talent risks.

China Merchants Bank (600036) Annual Report 2018 Review: Retail and Technology Transformation Deepens Interest Spread

China Merchants Bank (600036) Annual Report 2018 Review: Retail and Technology Transformation Deepens Interest Spread

Investment Highlights China Merchants Bank announced its 2018 annual report on March 22, 2019, aiming to achieve operating income of 2,485.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 12 in ten years.

5%, net profit attributable to the parent company is 805.

6 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.


China Merchants Bank maintained its leading position in retail business and technological transformation, with a profit growth rate of 14%.

8% continued to lead the stock market, with higher interest margins and thicker provisions.

The main driver of profit is the increase in the size of interest-earning assets4.

7%, NIM up 14bps and net non-interest income increased by 4.

01% (excluding the impact of changes in accounting standards).

The company’s cost-to-income ratio is +0 for ten years.

8 up to 31.

0%, fintech strategic occupation remains high.

On the whole, the company’s scale and pricing contribution have gradually changed, and the overall growth has remained positive. The stability of asset quality brings the logic of credit cost savings.

Medium-scale growth (YoY 7.

1%), the proportion of traditional businesses has further increased.

Corporate loan / total assets comparison increased by 1 in 2017.

4 points to 57.


In terms of credit placement, the company has a marked tilt in the first half of the year for two consecutive years, and the expansion of Q4 loans has been slightly compressed.

The proportion of debt-side deposits increased by nearly 1ptc to 72.

At 7%, bond issuance replaced growth in interbank debt.


57, increased from the earlier 1-3 quarters / the same period last year + 3bps / 12bps.

The main contribution comes from the improvement of loan pricing (+ 32bps per year).

However, in the second half of the year, the downward movement of the inter-bank interest rate center will not save the company’s debt costs significantly.

Intermediate income increased slightly, mainly due to the entrusted business income under the new asset management regulations.

Non-performing rate, non-performing amount and non-performing rate “three drops”. Provisions continued to increase and write-off disposal was relatively positive.

Defective rate 1.

At 36%, the net rate of poor TTM production dropped to zero.

39%, with an annualized credit cost of 1.

58%, the end-period provision coverage ratio was 358%, and the loan-to-loan ratio was 4.

88%, the high level continued to rise.

We maintain our previous view. The company’s asset quality has been consolidated in the previous period, and the level of provision has tilted to a controversial safety pad for other joint-stock banks. In the future, credit costs will also be relatively stable due to the reduced generation rate. Savings on impairment will increase profits.Provide sufficient positive contributions.

We slightly adjusted the company’s EPS to 3 in 2019 and 2020.

63 yuan and 4.

19 yuan, the final net asset is expected to be 22 at the end of 2019.

95 yuan (not considering dividends), calculated at the closing price of 2019-3-22, the corresponding PE in 2019 and 2020 are 8 respectively.9 and 7.

7 times, corresponding to 1 at the end of 2019.

41 times.

The company flexibly adjusted its business in the context of the economic downturn, focusing more on its focus, balancing risk pricing, shifting its capabilities, and leading the industry in asset quality.

Considering that the company’s retail first-mover advantage continues and the strategic transformation of light banks continues to advance, we continue to be optimistic about the company’s subsequent development.

The growth of the income side also supports the increase of the company’s strategic cost expenditures, and the technology and financial expenditures for the company to enter the “new business model to win”.

Stage 0 “provides the foundation.

We maintain our prudent overweight rating on the company.

Risk Warning: Asset quality 上海夜网论坛 fluctuates more than expected, middle income and scale expansion

Hudian shares (002463): Profitability of domestic high-end PCB leading domestic manufacturers has significantly improved

Hudian shares (002463): Profitability of domestic high-end PCB leading domestic manufacturers has significantly improved

Event: Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd. released its 2018 annual report with a partial revenue of 54.

97 ppm, an increase of 18 years.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

US $ 700 million, which increased by 180% each year due to the base number in 2017; non-net profit was deducted5.

1.7 billion, a big increase of 257% in ten years.

Initial PCB business gross margin 24.

18%, a big increase of 5 a year.

69%; average net margin is 10.

38%, a year-on-year increase of nearly 6%.

Maximum ROE14.

23%, a big increase of 8 a year.


ROE levels have returned to a 10-year high.

Hudian shares also released the forecast for the first quarter of 2019, with an expected net profit of 1.


700 million, an increase of 99% -142% in ten years.

Opinion: The Huangshi factory turned losses into profits and gradually realized a substantial increase in the profit level of Shanghai Electric Power.

The company will continue to transfer new orders to the newly-built Hubei Huangshi Plant, so that the Huangshi Plant can realize a turnaround from loss to profit during the year and gradually generate revenue6.

500 million yuan.

In the future, the growth of the downstream automotive and communications industries will accelerate, and the business of the Huangshi plant is expected to continue to expand.

The company’s PCB business currently has a gross margin of about 24%, and there is still room for improvement from the industry’s top 30%.

New energy sources and millimeter-wave radars have boosted the volume and price of automotive PCBs.

According to our calculations, the demand for PCBs of the three-energy system of new energy vehicles has increased by more than 800 yuan per vehicle, and the unit price of high-frequency PCB required by millimeter-wave radar is 3?
5 times.

We predict that the average value of the bicycle PCB reset will increase from 464 yuan in 2018 to 850 yuan in 2025, during which the CAGR will be 9%.

Due to the rapid popularization of domestic new energy vehicles, the domestic automotive PCB market is conservatively estimated to recover from 10.9 billion in 2018 to $ 24.1 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 12% during the period.

Considering that many domestic PCB suppliers including Hudian’s many products actually match vehicles sold overseas, the actual domestic automotive PCB market growth rate has changed.

The global automotive PCB market 北京桑拿洗浴保健 will reach 583 billion by 2025.

Hudian shares in automotive PCB revenue in 201812.

800 million, we estimate its global share to be 3.

About 5%, ranking first in China and the top ten in the world.

The company’s products that match 24GHz and 77GHz millimeter-wave radars and products that match new energy vehicles Sanden have been mass-produced by mainstream customers.

We noticed that the company’s high-end automotive PCB leader, German Schweizer, has contributed profits since 2018 (about 7 million yuan, irrespective of exchange rate adjustments).

In the future, to break through the outbreak of demand for high-end automotive panels, more joint forces will be formed among many companies.

Summary: The company’s overall operating conditions are good, and its net profit has remained high for three consecutive quarters.

We predict that in the next 1-2 years, the networking of automotive PCB and 5G will promote the company’s PCB product volume and price to rise.

The increase of the company’s maximum production capacity and the optimization of the new plant’s production efficiency will further enhance profitability.

The company’s mass production capacity in the field of automotive 77GHz millimeter-wave radar is scarce in China, and Schweizer, which is jointly invested in, continues to develop and strengthen the solution’s leading position in the domestic automotive PCB field.
We expect the company’s revenue for 2019/2020/2021 to be 65.


5 ten percent, an increase of 18 per year.

9% / 17.

5% / 15.

3%, net profit attributable to mother is 6.



4.4 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.



67, an annual increase of 18.

2% / 28.

6% / 31.


The corresponding PE is 27.



4x, first coverage, given “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: The popularity of new energy / millimeter wave radars in cars is less than expected; global car sales are less than expected; 5G networking progress is less than expected.

Shanying Paper (600567): Wrapping paper prices continue to fall and profit attempts are being repaired

Shanying Paper (600567): Wrapping paper prices continue to fall and profit attempts are being repaired

Core point of view Packaging paper has risen smoothly since the fourth quarter of 2019. We believe that under the zero-waste import policy, the waste gap has widened + inventory in the industry chain has returned to normal levels + a better demand margin has pushed the price of packaging paper to rise further.

Shanying Paper is actively deploying overseas raw materials, and the cost dividend is expected to accelerate the recovery of profits; the transformation and the successful commissioning of the first phase of the central China production base are also expected to promote steady growth in revenue. We expect the company to grow in 2019?
EPS is 0 in 2021.

40, 0.

51, 0.

62 yuan, raised to the “buy” level.

Industrial chain inventory decline + good demand + waste paper gap is expected to expand, 19Q4 packaging paper rose smoothly in the fourth quarter into the traditional peak season of packaging paper, market demand for the better staggered industrial chain inventory fell to normal levels, packaging paper season price increase smoothly, raw materialsThe import of foreign waste has become stricter, and the widening of the gap in waste paper has also formed a certain support for paper prices. According to Zhuochuang Information, as of December 12, the price of cardboard / corrugated paper increased by 260/222 yuan / ton from the average price in September.The increase rate reached 7% / 7%, and the price of raw material waste yellow board paper rose 195 yuan / ton from the average price in September, an increase of 10%.

According to our calculation model of gross profit per ton, the instant gross profit per ton of containerboard on December 12 (4: 6 ratio of foreign waste / national waste) has been repaired to 563 yuan / ton, which was an increase of about 160 yuan / ton from the early August low.The increase is about 40%.

The import of external waste is becoming stricter, the company’s raw material advantages are prominent, and the profitability is expected to be gradually repaired. The 2019 foreign waste import review copy is replaced by 1075, which is 41% of the annual quantitative replacement in 2018.

Under the “zero waste import” policy, the foreign waste import quota is expected to overlap or will overlap in 2020. At the same time, the packaging paper inventory will be replaced to replace the central level. The space for repairing the supply and demand gap of waste paper brought by the high inventory of finished paper will be attenuated.The price of waste paper is expected to rise in 2020, and the price of slender support packaging paper will rise.

Shanying Paper actively deploys overseas raw materials. According to the company’s interim report, the company has 450 years of recycled fiber in the country to achieve efficient recycling and logistics capabilities (including the domestic recycling network, the annual recycling volume reaches 660 tons). The release of cost dividends is expected to drive preliminary

The first phase of the Central China 无锡桑拿网 production base was put into operation smoothly, and new capacity was released to support the steady growth of revenue. In 2019, the construction of the central China papermaking base steadily advanced. According to the company’s official website, the first production line of the Central China Phase I project was successfully launched on December 6. The additional capacity was released.Support the company’s long-term steady development.

In addition, the company’s convertible bonds have been successfully issued, and the funds raised will be used for the comprehensive utilization of papermaking resources, comprehensive solid waste utilization and comprehensive resource utilization power generation projects. After the project is completed, it will promote the improvement of comprehensive resource utilization efficiency.Improve economic efficiency.

The price increase has continued to fall, and the rating has been upgraded to “Buy”. Taking into account the weak industry demand in the second quarter / third quarter of 2019, profit improvement, adjustment of profit forecast, is it expected that the company?
Net profit attributable to mothers in 2021 18.


4, 28.

500 million (previous value was 29.

2, 33.

2, 38.

1 ppm), the corresponding EPS is 0.

40, 0.

51, 0.

62 yuan, BPS is 3.

28, 3.

71, 4.

13 yuan.

Since the company went public in 2001, the average value of PB (LF) was 2.

03x, considering that the industry and the company’s fundamentals have bottomed and stabilized indicators, but the profit repair will take time, given the company in January 2020.


25x target PB estimate, corresponding to a target price of 4.


At 64 yuan, the current inventory of the industrial chain is falling, the margin of demand is picking up, the raw material gap continues to expand and accelerate the clearing of small and medium-sized production capacity, the improvement of the industry supply-demand relationship, catalyzes the industry boom, and the company currently underestimates the attractiveness of investment and upgrades it to a “buy” rating.
Risk Warning: The downstream demand is lower than expected, and the growth rate of raw materials.

Changchun High-tech (000661): Growth hormone business continues to grow rapidly Vaccine attempts to get back on track in the second half of the year

Changchun High-tech (000661): Growth hormone business continues to grow rapidly Vaccine attempts to get back on track in the second half of the year
Matters: The company disclosed the 2019 semi-annual report and realized a revenue of 33 in real terms.90,000 yuan, an increase of 23 in ten years.4%, net profit attributable to mother 7.30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 32.6%, to achieve net profit after deductions.20,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.5%.  Comment: The interim results are in line with expectations. The growth hormone business continued to grow rapidly in the first half of the year. The company’s revenue and net profit attributable to mothers increased by 23 respectively.4% and 32.6%, quarterly, 2019Q2 revenue and net profit attributable to mother were 16 respectively.200 million and 3.600 million, an annual increase of -5.89% and 7.04%, the net profit attributable to mothers in 19Q1 was basically flat; the 10-year growth rate in the first half of the year fell earlier than in 19Q1, mainly due to the high base of Q2 performance last year and the negative growth impact of the 合肥夜网 vaccine business in the first half of the year (about -30% a year).In terms of business: 1) On the basis of the main subsidiary Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s annual performance of about 50% for two consecutive years, 19H1 still maintained rapid growth, achieving revenue and profit of 21 respectively.400 million and 8.200 million, an increase of 41 in ten years.7% and 47.8%, new patients promote the rapid growth of growth hormone business; 2) 100 grams of biological vaccine business revenue4.1 ‰ (-29.1%), profit 95.68 million yuan (-30.7%), the decline in performance was mainly due to the mad vaccine production and the chickenpox vaccine process. In the first half of this year, the production and batches of the chickenpox vaccine were insufficient.The new plant ‘s varicella vaccine pre-filling packaging line has been put into production. We expect to gradually return to normal in the second half of the year. The nasal spray vaccine is undergoing on-site inspection at the production site and will be approved soon. It is expected to become a new growth point of vaccine business performance; 3) Huakang PharmaceuticalThe industry is mainly general medicine business, such as Chinese medicine, with revenue of 2.91 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.7%, steady growth; 4) High-tech real estate revenue 5.39 trillion, mainly carried forward in the first quarter, but in the first half of 19H1 revenue increased by 37.8%, profit increased by 45.4% (1.200000000).In general, the first half of the performance was basically in line with expectations.  Growth hormone market cap is still far away, absorb and merge the minority shareholders’ rights and increase the company ‘s performance. Jinsai Pharmaceutical has the most complete product line of domestic growth hormone, powder injection, water injection, short-acting, long-acting and other dosage forms and varieties.Combined.The ceiling of the domestic market for growth hormone is still far away. According to data from the Pediatrics Branch of the Chinese Medical Association, the incidence of dwarf children in China is about 3%. Of all the dwarf population, there are about 700 children aged 4-15 who need treatment, of which 1/3Pathological, about 2.1 million people. Based on the current annual cost of pink needle treatment, only 100,000 children with dwarf are treated nationwide, and the penetration rate is less than 5%. It can be expanded and deepened by society and parents’ understanding of growth hormone.The future of hormones is controversial.  At the same time, the company is currently in the process of acquiring Jinsai Pharmaceuticals29.5% minority shareholders’ equity, Jin Lei and Lin Dianhai promised that Jinsai Pharmaceutical will achieve a net profit of not less than 15 in 2019-2021.5.8 billion, 19.4.8 billion, and 23.2000000000.Jinsai Pharmaceutical has achieved 8 in the first half of the year.With a net profit of 200 billion yuan, the number of new patients is relatively fast, and the expected performance is expected to be completed.  After complete consolidation, it will also be beneficial to thicken the company’s earnings. Based on the pricing of the issuance price, it is assumed that the subsequent raising of supporting funds and convertible bonds into stocks will not be considered for the time being. It is estimated that the increase in earnings per share in 2019 will be about 14%.  Earnings forecast and investment rating will not take into account the acquisition of minority shareholders’ equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical and the impact of raising funds. We predict that the company’s operating income will be 72 in 2019-2020.27/95.88/121.7.3 billion, an increase of 34.5% / 32.7% / 27.0%; net profit attributable to mothers is 14.45/19.25/24.3.6 billion, an increase of 43.4% / 33.2% / 26.5%; corresponding earnings per share is 8.50/11.33/14.33 yuan, the current closing price (331.(0 yuan / share) corresponding to PE of 39/29/23 times in 2019-2021 respectively; the company’s net profit in the next three years will grow at an average rate of 35%, and PES (2019E) is only 1.About 1x, maintain “Buy” rating.  Risk reminders: Jinsai’s restructuring progress is less than expected; competition in the growth hormone industry has intensified; industry risks in the 2013 Changsha incident

Hengdian Film & TV (603103) 2018 Annual Report Review: Channel Expansion Costs First Focus on Profit Turnover After Expansion Period

Hengdian Film & TV (603103) 2018 Annual Report Review: Channel Expansion Costs First Focus on Profit Turnover After Expansion Period

This report reads: Box office growth expansion 深圳桑拿网 overlaps with the expansion of the cycle cost pressure to overcome profit pressure decline, focusing on the increase in non-ticket revenue share and accelerated channel growth speed conversion of the movie business profitability.

Key points of investment: Costs go ahead during the expansion period, paying attention to the temporary point in the expansion cycle and the proportion of non-ticket revenue.

The box office was less than expected in 2018. The company opened a new theater and ranked the profitability of the projection business.

As the company is still in the rapid expansion period in 2019 and the cost pressure is overcome, the PES in 2019-20 is reduced to zero.

71 (-0.

42) / 0.

78 (-0.

7) Yuan, giving 2020 EPS1.

37 yuan. Since the company’s new theaters are mostly located in third- and fourth-tier cities, the lower-tier cities will be deployed in advance to enjoy channel sinking market dividends and maintain a target price of 28.

25 yuan, corresponding to 39 in 2019.

8 times PE, downgraded to cautious overweight rating.

Event: The company announced the 2018 annual report and achieved revenue 27.

4 billion (+8.

2%), net profit attributable to mother 3.

200 million (-2.

98%), 52 new cinemas opened in 2018, and gradually own 316 cinemas.

Box office growth forecast, the cost of new theaters ahead of schedule results in slightly lower than expected results.

Subject to the growth of the box office market, which continues to be slower than the growth rate of the channel, the company’s average single box office in 2018 was 6.69 million, a decrease of 11 per year.

At the same time, the company continues to expand the channel layout. In 2018, 52 new theaters were opened (+ 19%). The upfront cost of newly opened theaters dragged down the company’s projection business profitability. Considering that the company is expected to open 60 new theaters in 2019, it is estimated thatThe gross profit margin of short-term projection business will still be under pressure. After the end of the expansion period, it will try to change its operating leverage to achieve a change in profitability.

The non-ticket business developed into a bright spot.

Company non-ticket income in 20186.

86 billion, accounting for 25.

2%, the cumulative contribution to gross profit 杭州夜网论坛 is 107% (the gross margin of the projection business is negative), and the 4 + 1 strategy has a significant effect. It is expected that the company will continue to actively introduce new non-ticket formats in the future to promote catering, gaming, and leisure experience-based theaters.The multi-format development of consumer scenarios has increased pre-screening and positional advertising revenues, and has attempted to hedge the profitability of the projection business on a considerable scale.

Risk Warning: The box office growth rate and the operation of new cinemas are less than expected, and the viewing channels are fiercely competitive.

Shenzhen Gas (601139) Company Dynamic Comment: Optimization of Gas Source Structure and Performance Leading Growth

Shenzhen Gas (601139) Company Dynamic Comment: Optimization of Gas Source Structure and Performance Leading Growth

Event: The company disclosed its 2019 performance report.

The comment is as follows: Revenue growth in 2019 is 10 years.

0% to 140.

100 million US dollars, net profit attributable to mothers increases by 2 every year.

3% to 10.

600 million, net profit after deducting non-attributed mothers increased by 4 per year.

2% to 10.


Gasoline sales accelerated in Q4, driving rapid growth in revenue.

In the preliminary income structure, natural gas sales revenue was 90%.

6 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.

6% (9% in the first three quarters and six months.

3%); LPG wholesale sales revenue19.

9 trillion, down 22 a year.

3% (first half of the first three quarters increased by -18.


Natural gas sales were 31.

5.3 billion cubic meters, an increase of 13 in ten years.

9% (6 in the first three quarters and six months.

7%), of which the sales volume of plant natural gas is 9.

7.2 billion cubic meters, an increase of 13 in ten years.

5% (the first three quarters increased by half a year.

3%), sales of non-plant natural gas21.

8.1 billion cubic meters, an increase of 14 in ten years.

1% (the first three quarters increased by 8 in the first half of the year.


Despite Shenzhen’s gas price adjustment and rising gas source prices, the company’s performance growth rate remains industry-leading.

1) Shenzhen industry and commerce, factory gas price ceiling lowered: According to the Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission issued on December 29, 2018, “Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission Notice on adjusting the city’s pipeline natural gas non-resident gas sales price notice”(Shen Fa Kai[2018]No. 1679), starting from January 1, 2019, the maximum price limit for industrial and commercial gas will be 4.

49 yuan / cubic meter is reduced to 4.

39 yuan / cubic meter, the maximum price of the natural gas supply gas power plant from the second line of the West-East Gas Pipeline is 2.

48 yuan / cubic meter down to 2.

33 yuan / cubic meter.

Affected by the price adjustment factors, the average sales price of the company’s pipeline natural gas has declined in recent years.

2) Gas source prices continue to rise in 2019: In the pricing of natural gas in the spring and summer of 2019, after more than three months of bargaining, the current gradual downstream companies have a small number of new supply contracts with PetroChina, but the increase has reached up to 20%.

PetroChina will increase the city gate price set by the government with the buyer about the gas price earlier by about 6.

4% is consistent, gas sources are domestic conventional gas fields and Central 四川耍耍网 Asian pipeline imports, which together account for more than 60% of China ‘s total oil and gas supply.

3) The company’s operating profit margins in 2019 overlap slightly, but the performance growth rate remains the industry leader: In 2019, the company’s operating profit margin will be from 10.

0% dropped to 9.4%; but net profit attributable to mothers increases by 2 per year.

3% to 10.

600 million, net profit after deducting non-attributed mothers increased by 4 per year.

2% to 10.

2 ppm, the profit level maintained a rapid growth.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the net profit growth rate of the A-share gas industry attributable to mothers was -13%, and the non-net profit growth rate was -17%.

Gas source prices are currently in an upward channel, and subsequent gas source supply is expected to ease.

1) Gas source structure: The company’s gas source in Shenzhen is relatively stable. At present, the major natural gas suppliers are Guangdong Dapeng and PetroChina. Dapeng gas prices1.

7 yuan / square advantage is significant.

2) Due to the high concentration of natural gas upstream and high demand for gas, the price of CNPC gas sources is likely to rise and fall. The price of the first warranty period in 2016 will rise, and the price of the first off-season season will rise in 2019.

From 2016 to the present, along with the rise in gas source prices, the company’s pipeline gas gross margin has declined.

In 2018, the company’s pipeline gas gross profit margins were 25 respectively.

0%, 26.

7%, 26.

8%, 23.

9%, 23.

7%, which dropped further to 20 in the first half of 2019.


3) Under the influence of three factors, the supply of gas sources will become loose, and prices are expected to fall at a high level.

Establish a national pipeline network company, cancel the natural gas gate price, and establish a system guarantee for X + 1 + X multiple gas sources.

The peak period from coal to gas has passed, and the macroeconomic growth rate is preliminary. This year or a warm winter, the growth rate of natural gas demand is forecast.

Weak overseas oil and gas prices have accelerated the import of cost-effective gas and sea gas.

The company’s LNG receiving station began trial operation in August, an important growth point of performance.

The company issued 16 billion convertible bonds in 2014, and all the funds raised were used for the construction of LNG supporting facilities projects.

On August 18, 2019, the Shenzhen Gas Reserve and LNG Receiving and Unloading Ceremony of the First Ship of Liaoning Shaft Store was held at Dapeng Antiques, marking that the reserve warehouse project that has gone through a five-year construction period has entered the commissioning trial phase.

The project has completed about 6.

The 4 kilometers of high-pressure and medium-pressure gas pipelines are connected to the Shenzhen natural gas high-pressure transmission and distribution system, which realizes the interconnection of the reserve depot and the urban natural gas pipeline network.

After the project is completed and put into operation, the natural gas reserve in Shenzhen can be increased, and the emergency gas reserve can meet the requirements of 7 days of normal daily use.

After the project is completed and put into operation, an additional gas source will be added to Shenzhen, which will be included in the natural gas supply gap in Shenzhen.

Investment suggestion: High-quality gas leading enterprises, maintain the recommended level.

Expected company 2019?
In 2021, the EPS will be 0.

39, 0.

44, 0.

54 yuan, corresponding to 19, 17, 14 times price-earnings ratio.

The company’s current market net interest rate is 1.

9 times.

The company’s downstream gas user development has maintained rapid growth, and the gas supply pattern is expected to go loose.

After the LNG receiving station is put into production and gradually reaches full production, it will increase the company’s performance flexibility and increase its profits.
Risk warning: gas source price may exceed expectations; LNG receiving station production progress may be lower than expected; downstream demand may be lower than expected, etc.

China Merchants Shekou (001979): Resource endowment builds profit margins and accelerates value release

China Merchants Shekou (001979): Resource endowment builds profit margins and accelerates value release

The sales performance is eye-catching, the settlement foundation is solid, and the performance can be expected. According to CRIC, the company’s cumulative growth from January to November 2019 was 33%, and it was close to achieving the annual sales target of 200 billion yuan. The growth rate ranked first among the state-owned real estate leaders.

The release of performance in the first three quarters of 2019 was slightly slower than market expectations, mainly due to the completion and carry-over time concentrated in the fourth quarter.

Considering that the company’s settlement security is at a historically high level, the planned completion area in 2019 doubles compared to 2018, and we believe that the company can still achieve steady growth in performance in 2019.

  In the second half of the year, land acquisition is expected to rebound against the market, and strong resource attributes provide profit margins. As the land market cools in the second half of 2019, land prices tend to be reasonable, and the company’s land acquisition potential has rebounded significantly. From July to October, nearly 8 million new land storage sites were builtSquare, equivalent to 2 in the first half of the scale.

1 times.

  Thanks to shareholder support and long-term hard work, the company holds large-scale core resources in Shenzhen. Among them, the Prince Edward Bay project has a conservative estimated value of more than 110 billion yuan; the Qianhai project has a conservative estimated value of about 160 billion yuan for land replacement; the Shekou project has an area of 2.2 million countries.Later, there is also a higher potential for upgrading.

With the historical potential for future integration of regional development and the company’s increasing market-oriented operational capabilities, the accelerated release of the value of Shenzhen projects may provide the company with a margin of profitability and safety.

  The company’s development is of equal importance. The inventory and property sectors cater to market-based pricing. By the end of 2019, the company’s investment real estate was 43.3 billion US dollars, which was recorded under the cost method and the value was not fully reflected.

In September, the company announced that it would list five indirectly held properties in Shenzhen as consolidated assets and list the CMC REIT established in Hong Kong. It is expected that the subsequent release of the value of existing resources will gradually accelerate.

  In December 2019, the purchase of China Merchants Property issued by AVIC Sunda was successfully completed.

The company’s property sector and AVIC property have realized a strong alliance, which not only manages the expansion of the scale and divides the first echelon of the figure industry, but also the potential for horizontal integration of the Group’s internal resources in the future industry.

  It is estimated that the sales of the company and the rating company are growing rapidly, the settlement foundation is solid, and the completion schedule is about to enter a peak period. We maintain our forecast EPS for 2019-2021 to be 2 respectively.

20, 2.

50, 2.

84 yuan, the current price corresponding to 2019-2021 forecast PE is 8 respectively.

5, 7.

5, 6.

6 times, the corresponding predicted scores are 4 respectively.

8%, 5.

4%, 6.


The company’s resource endowment is excellent, and it can fully enjoy the development bonus of the Greater Bay Area. The long-term profitability of the real estate industry has a high safety margin. At present, the business strategy is both important. Under market-based pricing, commercial and property management platforms are expected to gradually become important to the company’s overall valuecomponent.

We maintain our target price of 26.

22 yuan, equivalent to October 2020.

5x PE estimate, maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: the continuous improvement of real estate causes the company’s sales recovery and gross profit level to be lower than expected; the company’s project completion and delivery progress 杭州夜网论坛 is less than expected.

Depth-Company-Gujia Household (603816): Extension and consolidation become the main driver of growth

Depth * Company * Gujia Home (603816): Extension and consolidation become the main driver of growth

The company released the 2019 first quarter report: the report merged, and the company achieved revenue of 24.

600 million, +32 a year.

8%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

95 ‰, +10 for ten years.

0%, non-net profit attributable to mother 1.

96 ‰, at least -0.


The main points of the support level are extended and contributed to the main income increase.

2018Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue was +34 twice.

2% / + 26.

9% / + 35.

0% / + 52.

9%, Q1 revenue growth remained above 30% to 32.

8%, mainly because most outbound mergers and acquisitions occurred after Q2 in 18 years, we predict that Q1’s outbound consolidation will contribute about 26% of revenue growth, and endogenous growth will contribute about 6%.

Real estate lag affects Q1’s furniture retail performance, which is consistent with democratic judgments. Demand is expected to recover to some extent in the second half of the year, supported by the completion of recovery.

Profitability has declined.

The company’s main business gross profit margin was 34.

7%, a decrease of 1 per year.

At 72pct, the proportion of exports and other categories increased due to a decrease in gross profit margin.

Selling expense ratio increased by 2.

44 points to 18.

75%, the period expense rate increased by 3.

19pct to 24.


Q1 company received 1.

300 million government subsidies, an increase of 70 million compared to 18Q1, so the net interest rate is 12.

1%, a decrease of 2 per year.

96 points.

The company’s profit growth was significantly lower than revenue growth.

The excellent management system supports the development of the product matrix.

The company’s outsourcing mergers and acquisitions continued, and the product and brand matrix continued to grow.

The company’s industry has undergone a preliminary division reform and reorganized into a matrix management system to encourage redundant management teams and “beautiful” 杭州夜生活网 management experience to support the rapid growth of each division. 18 years of sofas, beds, accessories, dining chairs, Customization, mahogany and other categories have achieved rapid growth.

In 19 years, the expansion of channels was inclined to large stores, flagship stores, and fusion stores. We are optimistic about the coordinated development of various categories.

It is estimated that the company’s advantages in terms of brand, channel and product, rapid growth of extension, landing, brand and category matrix continue to be enriched, and excellent management capabilities, multi-category into the development phase.

Maintain 19/20/21 earnings forecasts of 2 respectively.



06 yuan, the current total corresponds to 19 years of PE18.7x, maintain BUY rating.

The main risks faced by the rating 杭州桑拿网 are the risks of deferred M & A and integration, and real estate is further tightened.

Minutes of Research of Yongtai Energy (600157


Minutes of Research of Yongtai Energy (600157)


Brief introduction of the company: The company is the largest private energy listed company in Shanxi. It is currently involved in the three major sectors of coal, electricity and petrochemicals. It has entered the coal industry since 2009. It has now grown to coke coal 975 per year / 12.44 million kilowatts of installed power.The plate achieved trial operation, with a blending capacity of 1,000 tons / year for petrochemical oil products, and 1250 plugged into the terminal.

Coal: Currently coal38.

7.3 billion tons of reserves, of which 9.

8.5 billion tons are coking coal reserves. All coal mines in production are in Shanxi territories, in Shanxi Lingshi and Changzhi.

Thermal coal is currently undeveloped, mainly resource-based, and is located in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Australia.

Coal production remained at 1,000 tons.

Electricity: 12.44 million kilowatts of installed capacity, with about 8 million kilowatts of units in operation. The power plants are mainly distributed in areas such as Jiangsu and Henan. The units are large in size and have achieved ultra-low emissions.

Among them, 6 thermal power units are 1 million kilowatts, ultra-supercritical units; 6 600,000 kilowatt units are under construction, and there are 4 × 40 + 2 × 10 gas units.

On the whole, the unit is relatively advanced and the coal consumption is relatively low. The average coal consumption in 17 years is 297 grams, which is lower than the level of the five major groups.

The lowest installed coal consumption is over 270 grams.

In addition, the 5 and 10 terminals on the top of Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu directly supply Jiangsu Shazhou Power Plant (2 * 63 + 2 * 100 units, with an annual coal consumption of about 800).

Petrochemical business: It is currently in the final stage. It is expected to be put into trial operation in the second quarter of this year. The petrochemical project is located in Daya Bay, Huizhou, Guangzhou.

1.15 million cubic meters of oil depots, including 590,000 bonded oil depots (free of duty and consumption tax), supporting the construction 西安耍耍网 of a 30-distillation crude oil terminal and two pile-level oil terminals to form 1,000 fuel oil blending capabilities.

Storage capacity in early 2000.

After being put into production and acceptance, it will contribute cash inflow to the company.

The company will no longer have capital investments in the future.

Debt response: 1.

The head office-level creditor’s committee led by China Development Bank and CITIC helps companies sort out the situation; on-site due diligence was completed at the end of last year, and the follow-up bank’s general direction principle is not to draw loans, not to pressure loans, and continue to borrow.

Actively push forward, formulate creditor’s rights solutions, and discuss with the war.


At present, he is actively dating the Zhantou Jingneng Group. At that time, the initial preliminary intention was that Zhantou took control of the group, but the market situation has changed somewhat and the plan is still being formulated.


Company self-rescue: A 23.8 billion asset sales plan has been formulated, and non-main businesses are being packaged for processing, and some projects under construction can also be considered for disposal. Such Nanyang Power Plant and petrochemical projects are looking for suitable alternatives.

At present, the impedance is about 68 billion, which is expected to pass 3?
In five years, the rejection rate fell to less than 50%.


Supported by local government leaders, Shazhou Power Plant-Zhangjiagang State-owned Assets Operation Platform.

Supported by a local government platform of USD 500 million, Nanyang Power Plant’s projects under construction have received support from the local government; the local government of coal industry also actively helps enterprises to produce normally.


Under the current coal power construction project in Shaanxi Yulin Haizetan project: the planned production capacity is 600 tons and the reserve is 11.

At 4.5 billion tons, coal was scattered at 6,500 kcal. In 2017, the Development and Reform Commission approved the general rules of the mining area, and the Shaanxi government also approved the mineral rights resources. This year, it is expected to invest about 400 million to complete the exploration and transfer work.

At present, the company holds 70% of the shares. Whether it is selling or dating partners, the value-added is relatively large.

Nanyang Power Plant plans to build a 2 × 1 million kilowatt ultra-supercritical unit. It is expected that the state will support projects in old areas with a focus on one unit at the end of this year and one unit next year.

The newly added power generation is close to more than 9 billion kilowatt-hours, which is the main local grid-connected unit.

At the same time, the power plant along the Menghua Railway can cooperate with the company’s Shaanxi coal mine in the future to truly realize the integration of coal and electricity.


Operating data and profitability of each segment The company generated 25 billion kWh in the first three quarters.
The first three quarters produced 692 tungsten carbide, an increase of 20 inches over the same period of the previous year. The original plan was a series of 900 mm. It is now possible to complete the plan.
Profit: 15% a year for coal?
2 billion net profit.

Electricity Jiangsu Power Plant has high utilization hours, which can reach 5,200 hours, which can achieve profitability.

Henan’s utilization hours are slightly lower, and it is currently at a break-even state.


The cost and source of coal used in power plants are currently high thermal coal prices, and the increase in coal procurement costs in the power sector affects profits.7 every year?
800 tons, Henan uses 1,000 tons of coal, adding up to less than 2,000 tons.

Changxie Coal also has, but the current financial status of the company, upstream coal companies require high payment from us, so the price discount is not great.

Imports are also being done, and the pier recently imported a vessel of Australian coal.


Under the operation of the coal sector, the current price of coking coal remains high. Raw coal does not include more than 800 yuan in taxes, and clean coal is 1,200?

Pricing follows the market and focuses on local sales.

The cost is relatively stable, the production cost is 210 yuan, and the personnel cost is also relatively stable without significant growth.


The performance forecast shows that financial expenses have a great impact on the company’s production and operation. Can it be reduced in the future?

The 18-year performance announcement discloses that the increase in financial expenses affects profits.

28 ppm, with financial costs expected to decrease in the future

At present, the company’s comprehensive business cost is close to 7%. After the reorganization, it is expected to save more than 1 billion US dollars. The company is gradually replacing high-interest loans, and the current institutions have downgraded our renewed interest rates.

At present, the state of Australian resources is in the exploration stage. It is expected to design 200 well patterns. In the future, it is planned to find partners to promote the project construction. The resource reserve is more than 700 million tons. It is expected to be expanded to 400 after production.
500 ruler.


Can cumulative litigation bring future performance?

Cumulative impact of litigation matters 30.

5.1 billion US dollars, the subsequent impact on profits is small, mainly affecting the recognition of debt levels, because these issues are creditors’ lawsuits against the company’s debts, which can be effectively resolved in the debt restructuring plan in the future, and will not redundantlyPerformance is having an impact.


Has the company’s reserves of shale gas made any progress?

The shale gas project is still in the exploration stage, and the initial exploration results are not bad, but the company will not make large-scale capital expenditures at present, and will not move forward in the short term.